Introduction
I was thinking about evolution and wondering how long it would take for a specie to develop into a new specie. And whether anyone had actually worked out a mathematical equation for it.
Using my year 10 understanding of genetics, I came up with a formula which I hope is correct. My idea is that a new specie will develop from another one through a process of continuous dominant gene mutations.
The problem of course is that if a specie evolves 1 gene at a time (as assumed here), then how do you know when a new specie has evolved from an old one given the transformation from old to new is gradual. I would here suggest that we look at the new evolving specie compared to the original old one and decide then when enough transformation has taken place to call the new specie a new specie.
The equation
The terms in the equation are as follows:
L life span of specie ie how long the initial specie lives eg 10 years
M age at which specie procreates eg 2 years old
B number of off springs per litter eg 5
S survival rate of litter ie what fraction of a litter goes on to live the full life span eg. 1 in 4 survives to live the full life span = 1/4
P prob of dominant specie changing mutation occurring eg 1 in 100 offsprings = 0.01
G number of genes needed to create new specie ie how many genes need to be changed by mutation for the initial offspring to be considered a new specie eg 300 genes
Number of years for a new specie to ‘evolve’
= GL/PSB(L-M)
Assumptions
Of course, assumptions have to be made eg. the developing new specie has the same life span as the initial one, the age of maturity does not change, the number of offsprings in a litter and the survival rate do not change, the dominant gene mutation is a ‘specie changing one’, the specie evolves one gene at a time and so on…
To that extent, the equation is therefore a guide and a best guess type of thing.
Breaking it down
Let us go through an example one step at a time to see how the formula works.
Consider a specie that lives for 10 years, L=10. The specie reaches maturity at age 2 and has 5 offsprings per litter, M=2 and B=5. The survival rate of the specie is 1/4=0.25 ie 1 in 4 offsprings lives the full life span, S=0.25.
Let us assume that 1 in 100 offsprings has the dominant gene mutation, P=1/100=0.01.
Let us assume that 300 genes need mutations in order for the specie to be qualified as a new specie, G=300.
We then have:
Number of off springs per generation without survival rate = (L-M)B = (10-2)5 = 40
Number of off springs per generation with survival rate = (L-M)BS = 40×0.25 = 10
Number of generations needed for 1 gene mutation = 1/P(L-M)BS = 100/1/10= 10
Number of years required for 1 mutation = L/P(L-M)BS = 10×10= 100
Number of years required for new specie = GL/P(L-M)BS = 300×100=30,000 years
Examples
Now let’s look at some examples to see what numbers we can come up with.
*** If someone knows actual real values I can use as examples, pls let me know. I will of course give full credit to you. ***
Postscript
This is my original work. If someone has come up with that equation before me, please let me know. I will still leave this article here as it is all my own work.
I do not believe in evolution and do not see the equation as ‘proof’ of evolution. I derived the equation out of curiosity to see what numbers come out.
Serge M Botans
You may not reproduce this article, in full or in part, without seeking my permission first!
